The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) apparently underestimated the real impact of drug price controls on drug development and should update estimates, Republican members of the House Budget Committee told CBO last week.
The first estimate: The CBO originally estimated Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) price controls would lead to one less drug being developed between now and 2030, and a total of 13 fewer drugs in the next 30 years.
Yes, but: Independent analyses found there would be from 139 fewer new drugs in 10 years to 135 fewer in 20 years, the letter said.
Investment is dropping: Drug makers, investment funds, and financial institutions publicly state the IRA’s chilling effect on clinical development decisions, the letter said. Bloomberg recently reported a slowdown in the industry, citing IRA’s impact.
To ensure a realistic assessment of IRA’s impact, the Members of Congress recommended CBO consider:
- trends in early-stage drug development investments by venture capitalists;
- reduced interest in developing small molecule drugs;
- selection of drugs with forthcoming biosimilar or generic competition for price controls;
- market barriers to higher launch prices for new drugs;
- the impact on therapeutic competitors of drugs selected for price controls;
- disincentives to develop drugs for indications with smaller populations;
- independent feedback regarding potential improvements to the drug development model.
Read the letter here.