The next pandemic is likely to be fueled by climate change, originate in animals—and could arrive soon, according to recent research from Ginkgo Bioworks.
Why it matters: As climate change extends the range of novel diseases, deforestation increases human interaction with other species carrying these pathogens—heightening risk of a zoonotic disease causing a pandemic, Bio.News reports.
The research: BIO member Ginkgo Bioworks analyzed the likelihood of zoonotic “spillover” events from pathogens like COVID that jump species. Ginkgo mined its epidemiological Concentric platform, designed to provide a sustainable global biosecurity infrastructure.
The findings: The number of spillover events increased 4.98% annually, while deaths from these events increased 8.7%, Ginkgo’s study shows. The likelihood that one of these spillovers will cause a pandemic by 2049 is 50-50.
What they’re saying: “This study suggests the series of recent impactful spillover-driven epidemics are not random anomalies, but follow a multi-decade trend in which epidemics have become both larger and more frequent,” the study says.
What can we do? As Bio.News notes, pandemic prep involves several action areas:
- Sustaining an innovation ecosystem able to develop countermeasures.
- Establishing mechanisms to make vaccines and treatments accessible in low-income countries.
- Promoting worldwide manufacturing able to expand rapidly for high-volume supply.
- Reducing global restrictions to free movement of vaccines, treatments, raw materials, and people with technical knowledge.
- Aiding initiatives to improve national preparedness.
In addition, biotech can help reduce climate change through production of low-carbon biofuels, biomaterials and biologicals to reduce use of synthetic fertilizers and crop protectants. Government policy should be reviewed and updated as necessary to ensure these and other biotech solutions can advance.
